Friday, July 14, 2006

World in Chaos

I'm not sure how much attention everyone is paying to what is going on around the world but I know I am despite how much I would just prefer to ignore it. I'm a rather optimistic person despite my disdain for everything...but, world events has me nervous. Of course, there is hope...but things look bleak in the Middle East. And things could devolve quickly...I'm going to give you a worst case scenario...

Israel ratchets up its attempt to gain security from terrorists. If that attempt includes any attack on the country of Syria, Iran has promised to get involved. Even a stray rocket landing in Syria could trigger a castrophic event. If Iran gets involved, the US could be in direct military conflict with Iran, Syria and Lebanon since we are in Iraq. Israel would have no problem in flying into Iran and bombing that country which would bring censure from many of the world countries. That would leave the US and Israel alone because it would be doubtful that any other country would enter the Middle East conflict on the side of Israel (or Iran).

If we get stuck in a war in the Middle East (outside of Iraq), US forces will be very thin. I'm talking very, very thin. If that is the case, we could be looking at the worst case: draft. Once again, this is a longshot but that potential is out there. Additionally, if there is armed conflict that involves Iran, oil prices will definitely climb beyond $100.00 per barrel which will send gas prices over $4.00. It's a real possibility...remote, but real.

It's a very tough situation. The US has very little leverage at the moment in the Middle East. They can pressure Israel for restraint but the fact is that Lebanon has refused to secure the Israeli border and Israel has a right to defend that border from attack. The US can pressure Syria to reign in Hezbollah but there are real questions as to whether Syria can actually put a stop to the attacks. Lebanon has neither the will nor the capacity to secure the border so it doesn't matter what they try to do. The US has no hand with Iran...just look at the nuclear program.

Of course, this is worst case. Best case would be for Israel to continue its raids for the next few days and clear out the border area between Israel and Lebanon. At which time, they would retreat back into their borders and then assist Gaza in restoring power and food (which they currently have destroyed). A US or UN brokered cease-fire would ensue and an uneasy stability would return to the region. Israel would have sent their message and Lebanon would step up to the plate in an attempt to reign in the terrorits that currently occupy their country.

I won't even throw in Iran's other issues or North Korea into this mess. But, needless to say, times are unsteady and I'm not sure Americans realize how close we are to an all-out conflict that could cost us many, many lives. It is a scary situation and people need to pay attention. It's not beyond hope yet but it is enough to be nervous about. I'm cautiously hopeful that the US won't be dragged into a full-scale war in the Middle East...but that hope is waning.

2 comments:

steele said...

I agree mike.....but if the worst case scenario would happen i would be first in line to jump on the plane over. I would expect you to be right beside me lol

Mike said...

Well man, I'd have to think about that. I mean, things would have to turn really really bad for there to be a draft but that possiblity is out there. Currently, I am probably out of the draft age but I'm guessing that, if the draft were to come back, they would raise that age. But, with technology and advancements the way they are, North Korea and the Middle East would need military intervention for a draft to become a necessity. Let's hope that it doesn't come to that. But, hey man, I'm up for a trip...but preferably not to Lebanon.